Thursday, October 17, 2013

Positioning: Qualcomm Ventures Beyond...

A few days ago, Qualcomm paper-launched their "Zeroth" processor. Designed to emulate the neural networks of the brain, Qualcomm says this product will improve machine learning and computer perception problems. But are they straying too far from their core competency in wireless and digital communication?

Neural networks and "feedforward" systems have been a growing buzzword lately. IBM has been at it for a while now with their SyNAPSE hardware and plenty of other software companies have added it as a tool for data analysis. The basic mechanism is to create a system that models biological neurons and can learn over time. Typically, a human will train the system by telling it which behavior is "right" and "wrong," although there are some tasks which are done without any human intervention. It's just like training your dog, only now your dog can answer things like "How many different types of objects are there in this picture?"

Why is neural networking a big deal?  Because despite their talent for arithmetic, typical computers don't "think" the way that we do, and computers have to expend a lot of energy to emulate easy "human" tasks. If you want a great example, look up how much computing power and camera work goes into painting the first down line for NFL games on TV.

Yeah, that one line takes 7 computers...
Qualcomm's press release seems to indicate that they want this product to become part of their fabulously successful SoCs. The company claims that it will help users train their devices for more human-like behavior. And while that sounds great on paper, I can't help but think that this is a great idea with horrible business implications. Qualcomm rode the smartphone wave due to their wireless communication products which made their offerings more appealing than any competitor's. Meanwhile, the Zeroth initiative aims to allocate space on a chip (in chip manufacturing, space=$$) dedicated to a task which would typically be performed in a centralized server. In other words, Qualcomm wants to integrate a device which will help users care less about Qualcomm's differentiating feature - the wireless radio. Finally, these learning devices should generally be able to leverage data from lots of users to improve their learning. Learning from only the local user might take longer to generate good results.


How will this Zeroeth product fare for Qualcomm? We'll have to wait and find out. Certainly I'd love to see more accurate individualized learning  in my smartphone, but I do have my reservations on this particular strategy. On the other hand, the company has been on a tear lately, introducing new products in all kinds of spaces. The next few years will either redefine Qualcomm as a broad silicon IP company, or solidify them as the big fish in mobile SoCs.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Tech Battles: Intel and ARM Trading Blows

Three weeks ago, Apple and Intel both announced big changes to their product lines that were somewhat dwarfed by other buzz.

Apple's town-hall iPhone event saw the introduction of two iPhones and iOS7, a group of solidly designed successors for the iPhone ecosystem. Unfortunately analysts (especially those on Wall St) had a rather tepid reaction to Apple's conference, largely due to their own inflated expectations. Despite rather solid products, AAPL saw about a 5% slide in after hours trading following the event.

What Apple also announced was a brand new A7 processor that will be powering the 5S. The key takeaway here is that this SoC will be a fully 64-bit ARM architecture. This is big news, as virtually all smartphones on the market right now use ARM's architecture, but exactly 0 of them are 64-bit. Until the iPhone 5s hit the market, that is.

Meanwhile, up north in San Francisco's Moscone Center, Intel was busy making the exact opposite announcement. The tech giant proudly unveiled a new family of processors called Quark, which is to say that it's smaller than Atom. They are targeting it at ultra-low power implementations that can help enable ubiquitous computing or the "internet of things." This processor is - yep, you guessed it - 32 bit. Like Atom before it, Intel cuts down to 32-bit to save power, while their normal PC and Server chips are 64-bit. The street liked what they saw, bumping INTC up 3% after the 11th.

Intel and ARM-licensees have been chomping at the bit to try and enter each other's markets. Intel dominates the high-end server and PC industry, while ARM users are running virtually uncontested in the smartphone and mobile computing world. ARM licensees have been busy trying to bring up the "microservers" market, but Intel made a deft play in launching Atom for microservers before ARM equivalents were ready. Yet, ARM continues to launch higher performance architectures and sign on interesting new licensees. Many pundits have taken the performance numbers of Apple's A7 as a hint to A* powered Mac devices in the  future. That is still a dream, but there is no question that Apple blows current SoCs out of the water.

On the flip-side, Intel has tried unsuccessfully for years now to break into the mobile market. There were a number of partnerships (see 2010 Nokia and Meego) and a mobile chipset that didn't even make it to market. The $50 billion dollar giant keeps fighting though, this year launching an interesting albeit unfortunately named smartphone. While they're still playing the long game on smartphones, Intel has shown that it means business in tablets right now.

Which team will be able to move into enemy territory first? It's anyone's guess so far, but be sure that by the end of 2014, we will have real data on what the first earnest product launches say about this battle.